By Robert Skidelsky*
LONDON – The king of Bhutan
wants to make us all happier. Governments, he says, should aim to maximize
their people’s Gross National
Happiness rather than their Gross National Product. Does this
new emphasis on happiness represent a shift or just a passing fad?
It is easy to see why
governments should de-emphasize economic growth when it is proving so elusive.
The eurozone is not expected to grow at all this year. The British economy is
contracting. Greece’s economy has been shrinking for years. Even China is expected
to slow down. Why not give up growth and enjoy what we have?
No doubt this mood will
pass when growth revives, as it is bound to. Nevertheless, a deeper shift in
attitude toward growth has occurred, which is likely to make it a less
important lodestar in the future – especially in rich countries.
The first factor to
undermine the pursuit of growth was concern about its sustainability. Can we
continue growing at the old rate without endangering our future?
When people started talking
about the “natural” limits to growth in the 1970’s, they meant the impending
exhaustion of food and non-renewable natural resources. Recently the debate has
shifted to carbon emissions. As the Stern Review of
2006emphasized, we must sacrifice some growth today to ensure that
we do not all fry tomorrow.
Curiously, the one taboo
area in this discussion is population. The fewer people there are, the less
risk we face of heating up the planet. But, instead of accepting the natural
decline in their populations, rich-country governments absorb more and more
people to hold down wages and thereby grow faster.
A more recent concern
focuses on the disappointing results of growth. It is increasingly understood
that growth does not necessarily increase our sense of well-being. So why
continue to grow?
The groundwork for this
question was laid some time ago. In 1974, the economist Robert Easterlin
published a famous paper, “Does Economic
Growth Improve the Human Lot? Some Empirical Evidence.” After
correlating per capita income and self-reported happiness
levels across a number of countries, he reached a startling conclusion:
probably not.
Above a rather low level of
income (enough to satisfy basic needs), Easterlin found no correlation between
happiness and GNP per head. In other words, GNP is a poor measure of life
satisfaction.
That finding reinforced
efforts to devise alternative indexes. In 1972, two economists, William
Nordhaus and James Tobin, introduced a measure that they called “Net Economic Welfare,” obtained
by deducting from GNP “bad” outputs, like pollution, and adding non-market
activities, like leisure. They showed that a society with more leisure and less
work could have as much welfare as one with more work – and therefore more GNP
– and less leisure.
More recent metrics have
tried to incorporate a wider range of “quality of life” indicators. The trouble
is that you can measure quantity of stuff, but not quality of life. How one
combines quantity and quality in some index of “life satisfaction” is a matter
of morals rather than economics, so it is not surprising that most economists
stick to their quantitative measures of “welfare.”
But another finding has
also started to influence the current debate on growth: poor people within a
country are less happy than rich people. In other words, above a low level of
sufficiency, peoples’ happiness levels are determined much less by their
absolute income than by their income relative to some reference group. We constantly
compare our lot with that of others, feeling either superior or inferior,
whatever our income level; well-being depends more on how the fruits of growth
are distributed than on their absolute amount.
Put another way, what
matters for life satisfaction is the growth not of mean income but of median
income – the income of the typical person. Consider a population of ten people
(say, a factory) in which the managing director earns $150,000 a year and the
other nine, all workers, earn $10,000 each. The mean average of their incomes
is $25,000, but 90% earn $10,000. With this kind of income distribution, it
would be surprising if growth increased the typical person’s sense of
well-being.
That is not an idle
example. In rich societies over the last three decades, mean incomes have been
rising steadily, but typical incomes have been stagnating or even falling. In
other words, a minority – a very small minority in countries like the United
States and Britain – has captured most of the gains of growth. In such cases,
it is not more growth that we want, but more equality.
More equality would not
only produce the contentment that flows from more security and better health,
but also the satisfaction that flows from having more leisure, more time with
family and friends, more respect from one's fellows, and more lifestyle
choices. Great inequality makes us hungrier for goods than we would otherwise
be, by constantly reminding us that we have less than the next person. We live
in a pushy society with turbo-charged fathers and “tiger” mothers, constantly
goading themselves and their children to “get ahead.”
The nineteenth-century
philosopher John Stuart Mill had a more civilized view:
“I confess I am not charmed with the ideal of
life held out by those who think…that the trampling, crushing, elbowing, and
treading on each other's heels, which form the existing type of social life,
are the most desirable lot of human kind….The best state for human nature is
that in which, while no one is poor, no one desires to be richer, nor has any
reason to fear being thrust back, by the efforts of others to push themselves
forward.”
That lesson has been lost
on most economists today, but not on the king of Bhutan – or on the many people
who have come to recognize the limits of quantifiable wealth.
Robert
Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a
fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British
House of Lords.
www.project-syndicate.org

Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια:
Δημοσίευση σχολίου